What you need to know about the Hong Kong protests.

Hong Kong has had a flurry of protests against Chinese rule. These protests have involved a huge number of people ranging from teenagers to retired men. These are some of the most consistently large numbers we’ve seen at a rally  in the region recently. Independent estimates say there have been between 500,000-800,000 people at the largest rally on June 16th.

In attempts to crack down on these rallies, there had been warning shots of live fire by the Hong Kong police. Xi Jin Ping said “Anyone who attempts to split any region from China will perish, with their bodies smashed and bones ground to powder”. In total, it is widely reported that there have been only 8 deaths and all of them have been caused by suicide.These protests were initially peaceful with protestors in different neighbourhoods singing “Glory to Hong Kong” and taking to the streets. However due to no response from the Chinese governments, protests have been getting increasingly violent. Protestors have thrown petrol bombs and make-shift explosives at the Hong Kong police. Local markets and shops have been set ablaze.

Why is this happening?

The protests began due to the passing of Fugitive Offenders and Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters Legislation (Amendment) Bill 2019, which would allow mainland Chinese law to be implemented in Hong Kong. Hongkongers feared this could lead to a crack down on civil liberties and prosecution of innocent locals.

Hong Kong was transferred by the British to China in 1997, who maintained its status as a special administrative zone. As a result of being a special administrative zone, it has significantly more economic and social freedom than most of China. Laws regarding censorship and protectionism in trade have not been present nearly to the same scale. It is the primary means for foreign investment inside of China which has allowed large numbers of multinational corporations to setup inside the region. Hong Kong holds the largest concentration of ultra-high-networth individuals than any city in the world.

Hongkongers fear this liberty and economic status being taken from them.

What happens next?

The Chinese government is likely to do one of two things.

Either:

1. They increase crackdown upon Hong Kong

OR

1. They negotiate based on the demands of the protestors but with increasing economic and social pressure.

In the case that they increase crackdown in Hongkong: the Chinese government might bring the People’s Liberation Army from China to Hong Kong to replace the police of the region. This is likely to result in the use of much more force than is currently being used. Some of the protestors are likely to be murdered. However it is uncertain whether this will prevent future protests in the region considering the massive scale of people violently protesting at rallies even right now. The history of privileges the region has enjoyed are unlikely to be let go by the locals easily considering they have never seen life without them. This can mean that there has to be a prolonged stay of the People’s liberation army in the region in order to prevent future protests. This is likely to take a large toll on the Chinese economy which is currently not looking its strongest. In recent years, China’s economy has taken a dive for the worse. The One Belt One Road initiative by them has made them start construction projects and give out loans to countries throughout Asia and Africa. This coupled with the fact that the USA is attempted to wage a trade war against China whilst banning Huawei products and reduce its reliance on Chinese trade means that China is in no position to be directing excessive funds towards the People’s Liberation Army’s potential stay in Hong Kong.

In the case that they negotiate based on the demands of the protestors but with increasing economic and social pressure: there is a loss of face that Xi Jin Ping’s rule will have to bear. The protestors now are not only demanding a retraction of the extradition bill but also an apology, a release of protestors and the right to vote for all locals in the Hong Kong elections which were previously open to a select few. Xi has also declared public statements threatening the region and succumbing to their demands in which case the Chinese state seems much weaker.