Now that the results of the General Elections are officially in, and it is clear that the Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), along with its allies, is going to form the government in the Center, Punjab, and KPK, people are waiting for the promise of change to materialize. It took Khan many years to get to the point where he is today. He has made big promises to the public regarding reforms in almost every area of governance including economy, health, education, police, judiciary, environment, trade and foreign policy. However, the fact of the matter is that the incoming prime minister isn’t going to have an easy time managing these things. The new government will face a lot of challenges.
The most important and severe of these challenges is the economic crisis. We are running an $18 billion Current Account Deficit (CAD), which means that we are losing $1.5 billion a month. This year’s CAD is 45 percent higher than last the year. The new government will have to rollover Rs 4 trillion worth of outstanding rupee debt over the following three-to-four months. Never in Pakistan’s history have we ever had a Rs2.2 trillion budgetary deficit. Given the magnitude of these numbers, Pakistan has to go to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for another bailout package – the 13th for the country since the 1980s. A recent report by IMF says that Pakistan’s external financing needs are expected to rise from $21.5 billion (7.1% of the GDP) in 2017 to $45 billion by 2023 (9% of GDP).
Another ordeal for the new government is the power shortfall. Lower power generation, because of less hydro-electric contribution and some state-owned power plants going off the grid due to faults, combined with a hot and humid weather and perennial line losses, have pushed the electricity shortfall up to 8,000MW. This has forced power distribution companies to observe around six hours of load shedding in urban areas, and over eight hours in rural areas across the country. According to the federal secretary of Water and Power Ministry, the situation worsened after some of its old power plants faced forced outages due to technical faults that these plants develop from time to time. This has caused a reduction in generation from 1,500MW to 1,800MW on average. Meanwhile, the maximum filling of Mangla reservoir, which normally completes by July or early August, didn’t happen, thus keeping generation restricted to 5,100MW.
Apart from these, another big task is managing the foreign policy, especially Pakistan’s relations with the US, Afghanistan, India, China, and Saudi Arabia. According to foreign policy analyst Moeed Yousuf, Khan’s victory wasn’t Washington’s preferred option. Much of what is said and thought of him is tied to his disparaging stance on the US war in Afghanistan and his sympathetic views towards the Afghan Taliban. Several columns written on him in the Western press since the elections have also tended to highlight his personal negatives. In this situation, handling the relationship with the US and being a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arab isn’t going to be easy for the incoming PM.
Other than this, ensuring accountability and ending corruption will also be a hard nut to crack. For this, the government has to empower institutions like NAB, FBR, FIA, and the police among others. Khan has vowed to make Pakistan a welfare state along the lines of Scandinavian countries. But given the country’s meager resources and the population explosion, this transformation will require bold and unpopular decisions, like wide-scale tax reforms, to actualize the promise of a welfare state.
Climate change is another frontier for the next government to fight on. On May 28, 2017, the temperature in Turbat, Baluchistan reached 53.5°C — an all-time high for the country and the world’s highest temperature for May — while the summer monsoon rainfall in the country was 22.5pc less than the long-term average. Acute shortage of freshwater, rising temperatures, shifting rain patterns, high risk of floods as well as droughts can affect millions and necessitate urgent action.
In addition, the education and healthcare systems are also in shambles. There is under-staffing and lack of proper training for the staff. It will require a lot of planning and effort to bring reforms in these sectors and make these services affordable for the public, while raising their standards. Another major issue is the management of civil-military relations which have not been so good in recent years. Khan will have a tough time dealing with the powerful military and its role in other areas including the foreign policy. Last but not the least, all these challenges come with a strong opposition comprising a multi-party alliance which is demanding a probe into alleged poll rigging. The new government does not have a simple majority and it can face trouble while taking unpopular decisions and carrying out reformist legislation. Khan will have to prove that he is different; a true reformer, political risk taker, bold, and as determined to change Pakistan as he has been in confronting the two political dynasties. Will he succeed? Only time will tell.
The writer is a student of BS Political Science at LUMS, Class of 2021.