It was 3 PM. The weather was sweltering. The NAB Court was swamped by Journalists. No, they were not covering a spicy celebrity gossip or an already over advertised mega project. They had gathered to cover one of the most defining cases in Pakistan’s history; one whose ripples would be felt for a long time.
The verdict shocking to some and jubilating to others; dealt a hefty blow to Nawaz Sharif, three time PM. The judgment passed by Justice Muhammad Bashir in response to petition for Avenfield Apartments 16, 16A, 17, 17A, gave a 10 year prison sentence to Nawaz Sharif and a fine of 8 million pounds in a corruption reference; a 7 year sentence and a fine of 2 million pounds in reference pertaining to forgery to Maryam Nawaz and a one year sentence to Capt. Safdar. Moreover, the Court also ordered Avenfield properties to be confiscated.
First things first, I will look at the judgment closely and try to analyze it. The Court had under the Section 9 of the National Accountability Ordinance (NAO) shifted the burden of proof on the accused (in this case the Sharif’s) and consequently the onus of rejecting the allegations and proving their innocence fell on them. This Section is applied in cases where there is a discrepancy in income and assets. And it was under the same Section 9 that they were found guilty for not being able to bring forward sufficient evidence. Application of Section 9 is not a common occurrence and is applied in cases for financial irregularities. Since this section has been applied and is now decreed by the highest Court in the land it will most likely become a judicial precedent for future cases and hence the significance of the judgment increases. With respect to the case, it also needs to be pointed out that the prosecution put forward a very weak case. They had almost two years of preparation since the start of the Panama Case in which they could have unearthed irrefutable and unquestionable pieces of evidence which would have removed any reasons for doubt. But they presented very lightweight arguments with a lack of substance, relying frequently on the fact that the burden of proof is not on them. This makes their side of the case not as watertight as people had expected from such a high profile case. Another very fascinating aspect of the judgment is that it has been found to have quite a few grammatical and spelling mistakes that point to the fact that it had not been well revised and was probably compiled in a haste. In spite of this, the case and its verdict is seminal in the legal history of Pakistan and should be commended for what it stands for and what it has achieved.
Now let’s take a look at PML N’s narrative on this case and ruling. Apart from raising the slogan in public that the decision is pre-determined as per the wishes of the army as a vendetta against them and all the judges worked as puppets, they also hold that according to the verdict Nawaz has been acquitted on corruption charges. This is similar to the Iqama narrative after the Panama case. Also, he and his party have repeatedly held that he has not been given level playing field and an adequate environment to defend himself.
First taking a look at their argument about Nawaz getting acquitted on corruption charges, it is only a politically motivated statement to woo his followers but has little significance in the eyes of law. The petitions brought in the Court were of corruption charges for Nawaz and submitting forged documents for Maryam. Given the special nature of the case, as explained earlier Section 9 had to be applied. In the verdict the Judge states that the prosecution has been unable to completely proof ownership of Avenfield Flats by Nawaz (due to a weak case put forward). But because in this case Sharif’s had to prove their innocence by providing sufficient evidence against the corruption allegations, once they were unable to do so they would be held guilty of corruption and will be sentenced on Section 9. So the ball is in Nawaz’s court that knowing the implications of Section 9 why didn’t he put up a solid defense and instead devoted all his energies to wooing his voters.
As for their claim that they have not been provided a level playing field and fair trial, is it true really? Certainly not. Let me remind you, the case had been running for almost two years from the Supreme Court to the NAB Court. That is more than enough time for one to defend himself. Also, they had at their disposal the most qualified and experienced legal team and the machinery of the Government but the best evidence they could present was the Qatari letter or the Calibri Font typed trust deeds. Imran Khan had also faced a similar trial brought forward by PML N but he had presented his money trail and got acquitted in the space of months. The time and resources they had to defend their case were greater than most of the people have in such situations. Also, how can they question the fairness of a trial conducted by judges he had himself suggested in the first place (when forming the commission). Claiming that they are mere puppets playing part in a conspiracy, ridiculing them in the public, is a very unfortunate practice and should be highly discouraged.
Yes, this isn’t the most crystal clear verdict given in recent times but there can be no doubt that after the time and effort given to the defendants they can have no further resentments from this ruling.
This is a hefty political loss for PML N and from now they will be in damage control mode. Its patriarch/ party head (whichever you believe him to be), Nawaz had already been barred from electoral politics and is now facing a ten year sentence. Moreover, the heir apparent and future leader of the party, Maryam is also facing a sentence of her own and is out of the election process. To make matters worse Shahbaz Sharif and his son Hamza are in a mess of their own with NAB probing mega projects under like Multan Metro and Ashiyana Scheme.
Nawaz Sharif and his party had already faced a steady decline in popularity since the Panama verdict. Many people were upset with the harsh anti-establishment tone and a lot of its leaders had defected. Most damaging was the Khatam-i-Nabuwat (saw) controversy that made the party highly unpopular in its conservative right wing voter base. With all this encapsulating over the past year, the Avenfield verdict is only going to give rise to anti-Nawaz rhetoric.
But does this mean it is game over for Nawaz? I do not believe to be so. Although the party’s current situation is quite fragile and the ruling has done nothing to amend that, there is also a window for opportunity. Now everything depends on Nawaz and how prudently he leads his party. If Nawaz decides to stay in London than N League is done for good. He would be branded as a coward and his remaining support would dwindle. The onus to lead the party would fall on Shahbaz Sharif who, although a good administrator, is considered an uncharismatic figure and has been ineffective thus far as the leader of the party.
But if Nawaz decides to return and faces his sentence than he can become the face of a popular civilian struggle. It needs to be understood that he still has significant following in Punjab and he needs to build on that. He has quite effectively utilized his “Mujhay kyun nikala” and “Vote ko izzat do” slogans, which have become very prevalent among his rural voter base. Now with another verdict against him and the elections looming, his party can cash on the victim card. The slogan can be further emboldened to project that he is being persecuted by the establishment for standing up and for fighting for his people.
A critical factor in politics nowadays is the optics projected through the media. Punjabis are generally very compassionate people; the image of their leader going to jail and facing his trial would not only strengthen the resolve of his supporters but also gain him sympathy votes among neutral voters. Politics in most of Punjab are based on the Baradari and tribal system since the British days. N league, for a long time, has penetrated this Baradari network effectively. They would continue to hold this edge even if Nawaz is in jail because there is still a chance his party might come to power. But given Nawaz decides to stay in England the tribal chiefs would expect his party to lose and consequently switch loyalties.
For Imran Khan and PTI it is a dream scenario; he is seen as the face for the fight against corruption by the public and media. In this struggle, he has received a lot of acclaim and political prestige. Imran Khan’s PTI is a much revamped party from the one in 2013. Over the past year or so it has absorbed a lot of so called ‘Electables’ from PML N and PPP which includes many seasoned politicians from Punjab and Sindh. This has given his party a significant standing in rural Punjab and helped make inroads in the Baradari networks.
Along with that there are a large number of independents (especially those contesting on the Jeep symbol) who are favoring PTI indirectly. PTI is also expected to get the support of a lot of fringe voters who after the Avenfield verdict switched sides. But in politics nothing is a certainty, and Imran has to be really clever with his political maneuverings. He has to make sure he keeps the support of small regional parties, whose role is going to be very important. And where will PPP come in all this? They have a massive following in Sindh and who they support in forming the government could be the decider.
Imran looks to be in the driving seat right now but we have to wait and watch.
Politics is ruthless and unpredictable. Who could have seen Nawaz Sharif, a three time PM in jail? On the face it looks like a huge PTI victory and an unmeasurable loss for PML N. But thinking on a grander scale for a second, it looks to be signaling towards a time where the powerful might also be held accountable. Yes this isn’t a perfect world and this wasn’t the most appropriate path adopted (pity Nawaz Sharif) but it still is the best possible under the circumstances.
Avenfield Verdict and the Road to Elections
