“I give you the ball Mr. President and now the ball is in your court,” said Vladimir Putin as he handed over the World Cup ball to Donald Trump. It seemed a light hearted gesture at the moment but had a far-reaching meaning. It indicated how Russia was now in a position to dictate the terms to an American President and how symbolically the ball was actually in Trump’s court. Just a few hours later, he had to face a barrage of criticism back home after making a fatal error during his conference. Helsinki was bound to be remembered for a long time.
It is not the first time that a US President held out an olive branch towards his Russian counterpart but Trump’s actions were completely out of the playbook. Trump has repeatedly called the investigations into the 2016 Elections a “witch hunt”. But never before has it happened that an American President chose to believe his rival’s words over those of his own establishment. That too when Putin said that “there had been no involvement from Russian state”; not denying any Russian involvement at all. Consequently, he was labeled with words like “Sold out” and “Traitor” in the media.
This pattern of reaching out to Russia and admiration for its leader is not something on Trump’s part. During his election campaign, he called Putin a “leader of people” at a time when Russia had just been expelled from G-8. Political commentators claim that Trump courting Putin is due to Putin holding some compromising evidence regarding him. This for obvious reasons forces him to reach out of his way to Russia. But I believe Trump thinks that with his eccentric Foreign Policy tactics he can manage to win over Putin and lead towards a new era of co-operation between Russia and US. This would open up new avenues in US international relations and give Trump the adulation that he so desperately craves.
Before taking a glance at Trump’s foreign adventures, a look needs to be taken on his global geopolitical vision. Trump’s foreign policy is an anomaly. During his election campaign he had asked his voters to put their trust in him as he would make America great again and set things straight. From the moment he took oath, it was evident that his tenure would encompass the most unprecedented era in 70 years of American global leadership. He believes that US is being drained by the very system it created and to overcome this problem a new system needs to evolve. He believes that America can envisage its new global role by projecting its unmatched strength overseas and using it to create a new balance of power. Adding to this his own personal thinking- his colossal belief in his negotiating skills, his undying admiration for strong men and his inclination for stirring up conflict – we come to picture his hit and miss diplomacy.
Trump’s track record in international relations is evident of all this. Over the course of the past two years, he has treaded an unfamiliar terrain. Putin is not the only dictator that Trump has been trying to win over. As mentioned earlier, he has a certain liking for strong autocratic leaders; he likes dealing with them and it gives him a sense of power. And he has repeatedly throughout his tenure negotiated with such people. The list includes people like Philippines’s Rodrigo Duterte, Saudi Arabia’s Salman and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu.
Without a doubt, the most notable mention in that list is North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. Trump had begun his presidency by dealing with Kim with a strong arm. He hiked the military operations in South Korea and the Sea of Japan and labeled Kim as “Little Rocket Man”. Bound to get a response, North Korea threatened to let nukes loose on US. Along with all this happening Trump also tried to bring Kim to the dialogue table, much to the dismay of his some of his allies. He succeeded in 2018 and held a meeting with him in Singapore. In the declaration passed, he gave way too many concessions trying to win persuade Kim. He even moved back from US’s most fundamental demands from North Korea like inspection of nuclear weapons and abandoned military exercises with South Korea, one of its most trusted and loyal allies. And as per now, the agreement had been nothing but a time gaining tactic with no concrete progress.
This was not the only time Trump abandoned or attacked his allies. Trump has been known to threaten, exploit, ridicule and humiliate his allies throughout his tenure. He had declared before coming to the office that the allies were not doing enough for America and he would straighten it out. And moreover, he relishes overpowering and exploiting others. No event encapsulates all this more vividly than his current trip to Europe. In a single NATO summit, he embarrassed most of the Western leaders and declared European Union an “economic foe”. This fractured decades long Trans-Atlantic relations of trust and harmony. He then made a behemoth entry in UK. As a giant inflatable baby Trump balloon flew over London, he publicly criticized the British PM and cited her Brexit policy as weak and useless.
And days later, at Helsinki, he praised the leader that most of the NATO perceives as the biggest threat to world peace. This was not some coincidence or lapse of error on Trump’s behalf. All the behavior of bullying his allies and greeting the Russian dictator with open arms and a smirk is straight out of Trump’s foreign policy playbook. So the question arises what Trump hopes to achieve by moving closer to pariah states like Russia and North Korea and by alienating his allies?
As mentioned earlier, Trump wants to establish a new world order. He perceives China as a major economic threat. European Union though financially secure, is considered weak by Trump. He wants to ally with powerful nations to contain China, and Putin led Russia after the Crimean annexation is quite strong. In the 1970’s US aligned itself with Communist China to counter USSR; Trump sees this a mirror image of that ploy, with just sides switched
Such a radical change to American Foreign policy is bound to cause polarization and have consequences in different parts of the world. America’s NATO and West European allies have stood with it through thick and thin but it is said nothing precedes national interest. Trump believes that threatening them he would make them agree to his terms but they seem to have called his bluff. They are rapidly moving on from US; the most vivid example being the recently signed trade deal with Japan. It is the largest trade deal ever involving EU. Europe is also looking to form cordial economic ties with China who is itself struck with heavy American tariffs. All these are very significant changes.
All this reflects that the major powers have sensed a shift in global and are adapting themselves. Many of traditional American allies have given up hope from Trump and are moving towards its rivals. On the other hand Trump continues to draw towards dictatorships like Russia and North Korea who can never be fully trusted. This leaves US in a very precarious position devoid of friends and in murky waters. Looks like Trump’s hit and miss policies have finally borne fruit in the most extraordinary ways.